Potential US sanctions relief for tankers could draw vessels away from Russian oil trades and into Middle East services, raising freight costs for Russian exporters while easing pressure around the Strait of Hormuz. Hellenic Shipping News, carrying a Platts report, cited analysts who expect capacity to be redistributed rather than a large pool of idle ships returning to work.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said legitimate businesses will be permitted to buy sanctioned tankers for non-sanctioned employment to help lower shipping costs. Washington has not yet published a detailed proposal. BRS Shipbrokers estimated that 148 deepsea tankers were sanctioned solely by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control as of 19 October, representing 2.5% of the global fleet by vessel count. Location signals suggested only 14 had been idle for more than three months.
Most potential candidates for mainstream employment were already operating in trades likely subject to sanctions, principally Russian clean petroleum products, according to BRS. Gibson Shipbrokers said Russian export freight rates could rise if those vessels switched to Middle East business. It also cautioned that the duration of any waiver would influence charterers’ willingness to book longer voyages.
Gibson identified Hormuz shuttle services as a likely destination, noting that 84% of US-only sanctioned tankers were in the Middle East, Indian Ocean or East Asia. Recent attacks have restricted tanker availability. Platts assessed the cost of shipping 265,000 metric tonnes of crude from the Persian Gulf to India’s west coast at $95.83 per tonne on 19 October, against $19.15 per tonne on 27 February, before the conflict.
Relief could also encourage owners to sell into a strong secondhand market, BRS said, if buyers received sufficient assurances against sanctions exposure linked to previous voyages. Xclusiv Shipbrokers estimated that a 15-year-old VLCC was worth $160 million, up 177% over the past year, while a similarly aged Suezmax had risen 127% to $92 million.
However, removing US restrictions would not resolve vessel condition, insurance or compliance barriers. Gibson said 70% of OFAC-listed tankers were at least 20 years old. Continuing UK and EU sanctions could further constrain access to insurers and classification societies. S&P Global Energy Horizons analyst Fotios Katsoulas expected the fleet capable of returning to mainstream trades to be substantially smaller than the sanctioned total. INTERTANKO urged scrutiny of condition, insurance and ownership, while the International Chamber of Shipping said the proposal’s interaction with UK and EU restrictions required clarification.