A surge in tanker deliveries could undermine record freight earnings and elevated secondhand vessel prices as fleet growth accelerates towards 2029, Hellenic Shipping News reported, citing S&P Global Energy CERA. The outlook puts the focus on whether longer voyages, sanctions-related restrictions and operational disruption can keep enough ships occupied to absorb the additional capacity.
CERA projects global tanker capacity rising from 703.72 million deadweight tonnes at the end of 2025 to 743.56 million dwt in 2026 and 862.98 million dwt in 2029. The forecast, which incorporates newbuilding orders and scrapping, implies cumulative growth of 22.6% over four years. Analysts identified 2028-29 as the most demanding period, when deliveries of very large crude carriers and Suezmaxes are expected to be particularly heavy.
The expansion follows a freight rally driven by the US-Iran war that began at the end of February, according to the report. Asian buyers have sought oil from more distant suppliers, while Middle Eastern producers have used ship-to-ship transfers to reduce exposure to transit risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Platts’ Global Dirty Tanker Index for non-scrubber-fitted, non-eco vessels reached $840,921.58/day on 2 November, more than 400% above its 27 February level. The equivalent clean tanker index rose more than 275% to $143,454.09/day.
At the end of September, CERA counted 1,494 tankers on order, representing 184.10 million dwt, or 25.1% of existing carrying capacity. VLCCs and Suezmaxes made up about 70.5% of ordered capacity. Their respective fleets are forecast to expand by 31.5% and 30.6% between 2025 and 2029. Product tanker additions are concentrated earlier, with Aframax/Long Range 2 and Medium Range growth expected to ease after 2026-27.
Strong immediate earnings have also lifted operating ships above newbuilding order prices. CERA valued a five-year-old VLCC at $185 million, a 57.4% increase over nine months and roughly $40 million above its newbuilding benchmark. XClusiv Shipbrokers recorded 146 transactions against 371 tankers offered during September-October, with larger crude carriers accounting for a disproportionate share of completed deals.
CERA cautioned that disruption cannot indefinitely absorb growing supply: more normal trading patterns, relaxed sanctions or restricted vessels returning to mainstream employment could release additional effective capacity. Veson Nautical likewise expects tanker values to fall as deliveries build, especially for VLCCs and Suezmaxes. However, it considers full restoration of Middle Eastern oil flows unlikely before at least mid-2027, potentially extending support for near-term earnings and prices.