Brazil’s iron ore export terminals are showing contrasting shipment trends, with growth at Tubarão favouring conventional Capesize employment while weaker volumes at Ponta da Madeira weigh on the broader picture. Hellenic Shipping News, carrying analysis from Signal Group, reported that increased cargo volumes alone would not guarantee stronger spot demand on the C3 Brazil–China route, given differences in vessel size, contract coverage and Atlantic ballast arrivals.
Estimated China-bound shipments from Tubarão rose by 6.59 million tonnes to 40.07 million tonnes in January–September 2026, a 20% year-on-year increase. Ponta da Madeira’s shipments fell by 9.90 million tonnes to 78.80 million tonnes, down 11%. Elsewhere, Guaíba recorded a 4% rise to 24.23 million tonnes, while shipments from the wider Itaguaí area dropped 6% to 36.07 million tonnes, according to the report.
Loading nominations underline the ports’ different vessel requirements. Port Insights data for 28 October showed 44 conventional Capesize calls carrying 7.33 million tonnes at Tubarão, against 24 calls carrying 4.15 million tonnes at Ponta da Madeira. The latter had a larger overall nominated cargo volume, but its programme included 33 very large ore carrier calls accounting for 10.59 million tonnes. November departure schedules similarly showed more conventional Capesize calls at Tubarão and a heavier concentration of very large ore carriers at Ponta da Madeira.
Production constraints help explain the weaker northern export performance. Vale’s third-quarter Northern System output fell by 6.9 million tonnes year on year to 42.8 million tonnes, largely because of reduced run-of-mine availability at Serra Norte, the report said, citing Vale’s results. Stronger Serra Sul production partly cushioned the decline. Vale retained annual production guidance of 335–345 million tonnes, although the analysis cautioned that output and seaborne loadings do not necessarily track each other.
Other terminals offer mixed signals for freight. Combined September–October loadings at Tecar and Porto Sudeste fell to 8.90 million tonnes from 11.75 million tonnes a year earlier, potentially limiting spot Capesize enquiries. Conversely, Signal Ocean Platform data showed Açu’s China-bound shipments rising to 9.18 million tonnes in January–September from 5.15 million tonnes. The report concluded that sustained C3 support would depend on nominated cargoes actually loading and conventional Capesize demand absorbing available Atlantic vessels.