Saudi Arabia’s crude export rerouting could require an additional 36-40 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) to handle 3 million barrels per day as Gulf of Oman transfer operations approach capacity, according to Kpler analysis published by Hellenic Shipping News. Moving cargo transfers to more distant locations would lengthen voyages and increase tanker requirements disproportionately to export growth.
The analysis identifies logistical support, rather than tanker availability alone, as the main constraint on the shift towards Saudi Arabia’s eastern ports and the Strait of Hormuz. Shore-side services at Fujairah and Sohar are reportedly operating at or near their limits. Kpler also cautioned that ship-to-ship transfer volumes do not necessarily represent unique barrels passing through the strait, because some cargoes undergo repeated transfers within the Gulf of Oman.
India’s west coast offers the closest alternative, particularly the Kutch and Mumbai lightering areas. However, recent growth in transfers there has mainly involved clean products, while most crude handled serves regional refiners rather than onward redistribution. The analysis suggests moving some Gulf of Oman product transfers to India could release capacity for crude, although a substantial expansion would depend on monsoon-related weather restrictions easing.
Malaysia provides another option through offshore lightering areas including Pelepas and Linggi. The cost is substantially longer vessel employment: Kpler puts the Gulf of Oman shuttle round trip at 17 days, against 21 days for India’s west coast and 38.5 days for Malaysia. Estimated daily export capacity per additional tanker consequently falls from about 120,000 barrels to 90,000 barrels and 50,000 barrels, respectively.
For a redirection of more than 3 million bpd of Saudi crude from Yanbu towards eastern outlets, the analysis estimates a requirement for roughly 25 additional VLCCs using Gulf of Oman transfers alone. That rises to about 32 through India’s west coast or 58 through Malaysia, compared with an existing shuttle fleet estimated at 54 vessels. The scenario assumes temporary measures allow some use of the East-West pipeline.
Kpler’s base case allocates 1 million bpd of extra crude to the Gulf of Oman through efficiencies and displacement of product transfers, plus 500,000 bpd to India’s west coast. Remaining volumes would move through Malaysia or on direct voyages, producing the 36-40-vessel estimate. Either route would increase fleet exposure to Middle East Gulf risks, providing context for the recent sustained freight rally cited in the report.