Caribbean Basin exports of crude oil and heavy products have risen 45% year-to-date compared with 2025, adding 234 million barrels, according to a BIMCO analysis carried by Hellenic Shipping News. Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst, cited Signal Ocean data showing that the increase was equivalent to an additional 880,000 barrels per day.
After allowing for higher transhipment volumes through the Bahamas, BIMCO estimated that the basin supplied 210 million additional barrels to the market, or 790,000 bpd. That made it the largest source of new barrels for dirty tankers so far this year. The region has become the eighth-largest export area, overtaking the Black Sea and Marmara Sea, the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.
The analysis distinguished that growth from a 1.9 million bpd rise in exports from the Red Sea area. The latter reflected Saudi cargoes being redirected from the Persian Gulf rather than additional supply entering the market. Saudi Arabia’s overall exports have declined by 1.7 million bpd year-to-date, according to the report.
Venezuela and Guyana accounted for the main increases in Caribbean Basin shipments, while volume changes elsewhere were smaller. The basin’s share of global exports reached 6.1%, against 3.9% in 2025. Suezmax tankers carried all of Guyana’s additional exports and 48% of the basin’s extra barrels overall. LR2s and Aframaxes, which also handled Venezuela’s increased shipments, took 29% and 14% respectively of the regional increase.
Shipping demand grew less quickly than export volumes. More Venezuelan barrels went to the US and India, while shipments to China declined. BIMCO estimated that average sailing distances for Caribbean Basin exports fell by nearly 10%, leaving tonne-mile demand up 31% year-on-year despite the 45% increase in cargo volumes.
Rasmussen expects further regional export growth. He said Venezuela’s proven reserves of more than 300 billion barrels, the world’s largest, could support its emergence as a major supplier if planned investment and production materialise. Guyana’s production expansion is already planned, and the report cited the International Energy Agency’s assessment that its exports could rise by another 210,000 bpd in 2027.