Severe low water on the Rhine is restricting barge movements and contributing to a build-up of fuel oil at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA), according to Alkagesta Market Insights, published by Alkagesta Newsroom. Its October outlook describes a widening divide between coastal stock availability and inland European supply, with consumers facing shortages as the fourth-quarter heating season begins.
Alkagesta reported water-level readings at the Kaub bottleneck of -5 cm on 1 October and 0 cm on 2 October. It characterised the conditions as record lows and said drought had brought Upper Rhine barge navigation to a standstill. The disruption has constrained the movement of refined products along the river, according to the company's assessment.
The report identified Shell Rheinland, with capacity of 190,000 barrels a day, and MiRO Karlsruhe, at 316,000 b/d, as major inland refining complexes affected by the transport restrictions. It said barge loadings had been cut by as much as a third. Those reductions concern loadings; the source did not provide corresponding figures for refinery output or processing rates.
Against that logistical backdrop, Alkagesta put ARA fuel oil inventories at 961,000 tonnes, reporting an 18.5% week-on-week increase. It separately compared the latest total with 842,000 tonnes cited in its 8 September fuel oil outlook. The company said the coastal accumulation reinforced the disconnection between Rhine logistics and ARA stocks highlighted in that earlier assessment, even as inland markets experienced physical supply deficits.
The outlook represents Alkagesta's own market assessment rather than independently verified findings. The company said its analysis combined internal assessments with publicly available external information, with some numerical material derived from or informed by S&P Global Platts publications. It also cautioned that its information carried no guarantee of accuracy or completeness and that actual market developments could differ from its projections.