A US licence for Russian diesel is unlikely to substantially relieve the global shortage because export supplies remain constrained and shipping restrictions persist, shipbroker Gibson said in a report carried by Hellenic Shipping News. Gibson distinguished the licence from easing shadow-fleet sanctions, which could add some tanker capacity, mainly for shuttle voyages through Hormuz. It said the Graham Act waiver would have no physical effect because the tariffs had never taken effect.
Russian availability is the immediate obstacle. According to Gibson, Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries reduced domestic supplies and led Moscow to prohibit diesel exports in July. Seaborne shipments from western terminals averaged 510,000 tonnes a month in the third quarter, compared with 3.27 million tonnes a month last year. Following an agreement with Washington, Russia began relaxing restrictions and authorised 500,000 tonnes for immediate export to global destinations.
Moscow also indicated readiness to supply the US with 300,000 tonnes in October, 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes in December. Three medium-range tankers were reportedly already carrying diesel towards the US. However, Gibson said preliminary trading data showed October exports to date only slightly above July-September levels. Refinery disruption also continued: Ryazan was struck on 15 October, while Russian officials reported an attack on a refinery near St Petersburg on 18 October.
Legal constraints present a separate barrier. Gibson said the licence excludes sanctioned ships, does not extend to services including bunkering and leaves the price cap intact, restricting mainstream tanker participation. EU and UK rules also remain unchanged. EU restrictions prohibit trading, brokering or transporting Russian diesel outside the cap, while EU and UK banks and insurers cannot support above-cap cargoes. Gibson expects many shipments to exceed the cap at prevailing diesel prices. It also flagged a possible US legal challenge, citing the presidential certification to Congress required to lift the 2022 Russian oil import ban.
Gibson expects little meaningful near-term supply relief unless attacks on Russian refineries cease. On 19 October, President Zelensky offered a 30-day pause in exchange for Patriot protection of Ukrainian airspace, but Washington had not indicated acceptance and instead sought a complete halt to strikes. A sustained cessation could eventually increase Russian diesel shipments to established buyers as well as the US, Gibson said.