Europe’s physical gasoline market faced sharply constrained prompt supply and steep backwardation in August 2026 as shortages of high-octane blending components coincided with Rhine transport bottlenecks, according to Alkagesta Newsroom. Its market assessment attributed further pressure to refiners favouring higher-margin middle distillates, with cumulative regional gasoline production down 2.1% year on year at 47.18 million tonnes.
Northwest European Eurobob E5 physical barge assessments reached $1,141/tonne on 21 August, while the cash premium over first-month swaps hit $130.50/tonne on 14 August. Mediterranean Premium Unleaded cargoes on an FOB basis reached $1,186.75/tonne on 21 August. Alkagesta linked the southern market’s tight balance to summer tourism demand and reports of refinery run cuts, which it described as unconfirmed.
The Mediterranean premium over northern European paper gasoline widened from $18.75/tonne on 10 August to $35/tonne on 20 August. According to Alkagesta, that differential made north-to-south shipments commercially attractive, prompting traders to discuss replacement supplies from Northwest Europe for Mediterranean destinations. In Spain, second-quarter gasoline demand increased 6% year on year to 1.90 million tonnes, its highest second-quarter level since 2003. Output rose 28% to 2.72 million tonnes, but exports fell 37% to 941,000 tonnes as refiners prioritised domestic requirements.
Transatlantic gasoline export economics remained unattractive on paper. The September RBOB-EBOB differential narrowed from 8.601 cents/gallon on 12 August to 3.655 cents/gallon on 20 August. Nevertheless, shipments continued to fulfil term commitments: the rolling 30-day volume loaded from Europe for the US reached 907,000 tonnes by 19 August, up 291,000 tonnes month on month. Brazil offered another outlet, with August gasoline imports projected at 600,534 cubic metres and the Netherlands accounting for 48% of supply.
Alkagesta expects tightness and backwardation to extend into early September. Although Rhine water levels at Kaub recovered to 73 cm in late August, it said normal barge operations would take several weeks to follow rainfall recovery. Availability could improve in the second half of September as winter-grade specifications permit more flexible, higher-volatility blending. The change begins on 7 September for Northwest European and Mediterranean cargoes and 16 September for barges. An October RBOB-EBOB spread of 15.351 cents/gallon also indicated better prospective transatlantic export economics, though the outlook remains conditional.