Alkagesta expects prompt fuel availability to remain tight through the third quarter as simultaneous transport constraints affect energy and bunker markets, according to a summary published by Alkagesta Newsroom. The company said its August market analysis, subsequently covered by Manifold Times, examined pressures on supplies across Singapore, Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean.
The analysis identifies two principal constraints: what Alkagesta describes as a stalled diplomatic effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Rhine water levels that it says have fallen to a 140-year low. The newsroom account presents these as overlapping logistical pressures on fuel availability, combining disruption at a maritime passage with restricted movement along a major inland distribution route.
Among the figures highlighted in the coverage, Middle Eastern fuel oil imports into Singapore rose to nearly three times their previous weekly level, reaching 328,878 metric tonnes by 29 July, according to Alkagesta Newsroom. The company lists the import increase as one of the main findings picked up by Manifold Times. Its summary places the Singapore flow data alongside the European transport constraints in describing the broader supply picture.
On the Rhine, barge capacity had fallen to 15–20% of normal operating levels, the newsroom report said. Alkagesta’s outlook also identifies the possibility of further disruption to Rhine-connected inland distribution in Central and Eastern Europe. That prospective disruption forms part of the company’s assessment of continued near-term supply tightness, rather than a separate forecast of fuel demand.
The report also puts the VLSFO Hi-5 spread at $225.93 per metric tonne on 3 August, describing that level as a multi-year high amid severe shortages of low-sulphur blending components. Together, the cited freight constraints, fuel oil flows and spread movement underpin Alkagesta’s warning that pressure on immediately available fuel could persist through Q3.