Rare earth metal and alloy production outside China is expected to fall well short of expanding magnet manufacturing capacity by 2030, according to Canaccord Genuity forecasts reported by OilPrice.com. The projected gap highlights a processing constraint for industries including electric vehicles, wind turbines and industrial motors, even as investment flows into new mines and magnet plants.
Canaccord expects magnet plant capacity outside China to more than triple to about 70,000 tonnes by 2030, while corresponding metal and alloy capacity reaches only 38,000 tonnes. China accounts for more than 90% of the world’s 210,000 tonnes of capacity for this intermediate processing stage, the bank estimates. Rare earth oxides must be converted into metals and then combined with other materials to produce alloy strip for magnet manufacturing.
Equipment availability presents another obstacle. OilPrice.com reported that strip casters used to produce the alloy can take up to two years to arrive, while Canaccord’s industry checks indicated that current export controls prevent purchases from China. The outlet also reported that North American samarium prices can reach as much as 346 times Chinese levels, underscoring the disparity in supply conditions.
Washington has moved to shield domestic production from Chinese price competition. Under a 10-year agreement with MP Materials, the Pentagon guarantees a minimum NdPr price of $110 per kilogram, covering the difference when benchmark prices fall below that threshold, according to the report. However, additional mining and magnet manufacturing investment does not itself provide the intermediate metal-processing capacity those factories require.
REalloys operates a metals, alloys and magnet-materials facility in Euclid, Ohio, and says it has North America’s only operating heavy rare earth metallisation capability. OilPrice.com reported that the company holds rights to approximately 80% of the Saskatchewan Research Council’s expanded output, including around 525 tonnes of NdPr metal annually. Under a Defense Logistics Agency contract, it is also designing a facility capable of producing 300 tonnes a year of samarium and gadolinium metal.
The International Energy Agency projects that demand for magnet rare earths outside China will rise by 50% by 2035. According to OilPrice.com, the agency warns that non-Chinese metallisation and magnet manufacturing capacity would remain substantially insufficient even if every announced project went ahead.